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China influences the global crisis

19.06.2018
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China influences the global crisis

19.06.2018

Economists blame China for global crisis. It was China that overheated the global financial market in 2000, which led to the global crisis in 2008. Even then, back in 2000, China accumulated a solid foreign exchange capital thanks to a boom in industry and corporation control over foreign exchange earnings, which subsequently invested in securities of the countries of America and Europe. China literally flooded the world financial markets of developed countries with money to such an extent that loan rates fell to record lows. What led to the catalyst for the US real estate bubble. This allowed all American housewives to own their own homes. The Federal Reserve System reacted late to such an overheating of the financial market and did not have time to strengthen monetary policy. Ultimately, the entire system collapsed in the fall of 2008. Economists warned before the crisis that Americans were spending their money unwisely. And in the system of finance and the economy in the United States, imbalances are growing rapidly. In 2000, expenses increased, which were paid for by loans taken on the security of real estate. Residential property in the United States in 2009 a quarter was under the security of bad credit. Ordinary consumer loans were also at the peak of popularity. The swiftness of George W. Bush’s policies added to the problems with the introduction of tax breaks, and sovereign debts turned into consumer loans. The country was also under pressure from increased spending on the conduct of two wars. In theory, Bush’s policy should stimulate the growth of the economy, which would pay all the costs, but it did not work.

Who, if not China, paid for Bush’s tax breaks, consumer loans to the population, as well as the costs of two wars. China-U.S. Bilateral Trade Deficit Triples. At the same time, Chinese economic growth was accompanied by an increase in the savings rate. China spent these norms on the acquisition of fixed income assets – treasury bonds. Therefore, in the global economy, the total volume of debt securities that are in circulation increased. All this led to a sharp decrease in rates in the market for funds borrowed. The Federal Reserve gradually lost control of long-term interest rates. Due to this, it was not difficult to get loans, which at that time were very cheap. China and other developing countries paid for them. Despite the high debt of developed countries, including the United States, the rate remained record low. This state of affairs in the economy and low inflationary expectations confused investors. However, this behavior of investors, as well as sovereign funds, can be understood, which continued to buy US bonds. The Chinese economy is much larger and this distinguishes China from developed countries. Increasing the economy and the volume of reserves China was able to have a decisive influence on the US financial system. Thus, the Chinese unwittingly drove the world economy into crisis.

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The commission hit the rate on the tariff As the main reason for the submitted application for raising gas tariffs, “ArmRosgazprom” called the change in the exchange rate of the dram against the dollar. Thus, he was a little cunning. As you know, one part of the domestic gas price is set in drams (for consumers up to 10 thousand. cube. m, t. e. for the population, small and medium-sized businesses), and the second part is set in dollars (for large consumers over 10 thousand. cube. m). At the same time, the payment of the dollar tariff was made in drams at the exchange rate of the Central Bank. Therefore, if we talk about the impact of the dram exchange rate, it is quite obvious that for both components of the price it had the opposite sign. The last time gas tariffs were changed was in April 2017, which was due to a rise in the price of Russian gas. During this period, the dram appreciated by 80 points. This means that in just these 8 months, the price of gas for the population and small businesses has increased by 20% in dollar terms! At the same time, big business saved 20% on gas costs, which, to put it mildly, is unfair. In fact, it was the population and small businesses that partially compensated the losses from the strengthening of the dram to the gas companies. Thus, in terms of the dram component of the price, “ArmRosgazprom” benefited from the strengthening of the exchange rate, and in terms of the dollar tariff, it lost. The final balance depends on the sales structure. According to the head of the company Karen Karapetyan, 78% of gas sales are carried out at a dollar rate. This means that the balance was indeed negative, and the company had reason to apply to the Public Services Commission to revise the tariffs. What then was the cunning of “ArmRosgazprom”? In his application, he requested a new dollar rate of $178, which is exactly 20% higher than the old rate. In the light of the foregoing, this is quite logical,. to. exactly corresponds to the strengthening of the dram by 20%. But for some reason, this logic did not work for the gas workers in relation to the population. Instead of simultaneously offering to reduce the tariff for the population by the same 20%, ArmRosgazprom just agreed to keep the same tariff! This, of course, was dishonest. The argument of the gas workers about the “aggressive investment policy” was weak. For God’s sake, invest, but not at the expense of consumers. The commission’s decision to reduce the tariff for the population by 6 thousand. Drama (or 9%) became a mini-sensation. From our point of view, this reduction should have been more noticeable, taking into account the real strengthening of the course, t. e. about 13 thousand. Drama, but the commission clearly did not dare to such radical measures. Nevertheless, the precedent of a reduction in the monopoly tariff is important here due to strengthening the national currency course, which in itself is good. It is bad that the commission did not dare to adequately raise the dollar tariff that affects the interests of large enterprises and oligarchs, limiting itself to its increase by only 5%. Armosgazprom had a good chance to propose a reduction in gas price for the population, taking into account the strengthening of the course. He could have won applause, but he missed this chance by donating it to the Commission of Public Services

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